ISSUE 279                                                                                                  January 13, 2025
Taiwan Politics Enter into Chaos
● This Week in Taiwan: 
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DPP has campaigned to launch an all-out recall movement, moves sure to exacerbate confrontation. President Lai Ching-te should neither back these efforts nor stand idly by.
Featured Editorial

Partisan Tensions and Internal Dissatisfaction: President Lai in Difficult Position

 

The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has faced repeated setbacks in the Legislative Yuan, with party whip Legislator Ker Chien-Ming calling for anti-democratic measures such as dissolving the Legislative Yuan, disbanding the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), and initiating recalls against Speaker Han Kuo-Yu and other KMT lawmakers. This has fueled calls for large-scale retaliatory recalls. Meanwhile, the Executive Yuan has shown no signs of compromise, resorting to hardline tactics such as reconsideration motions and constitutional interpretations to delay proceedings. Under these circumstances, politics is set to stall, devolving into a chaotic battle sure to squander public funds and erode public trust. In face of an impending political dark age, does President Lai have no strategy to prevent a head-on collision?

Featured Editorial
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The Constitutional Court should not freeze the amended Constitutional Court Procedure Act during its vacancy period when the number of grand justices is insufficient.

Constitutional Court Should Not Rule During Vacancy

 

The Executive Yuan has submitted a reconsideration request to the Legislative Yuan regarding amendments to the Constitutional Court Procedure Act. During this transitional period when the Constitutional Court's operations are in limbo, two politically sensitive cases have emerged and may be resolved through constitutional interpretation.

Featured Commentary
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Taiwan People's Party (TPP) supporters protested on Judicial Day. Supported by the opposition, the event showcases public distrust in the judicial system and Lai administration.

Protest Against Unfair Judiciary: 150,000 Show Support

 

Supporters of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) took to the streets in protest on Judicial Day, voicing their grievances on behalf of former Chairman Ko Wen-je. However, this was only one of their demands. The broader message conveyed by the event was the public's deep mistrust of the judiciary system and their significant protest against the administration of President Lai Ching-te.

This Week in Taiwan
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The Council on Foreign Relations listed the Taiwan Strait as a first-level conflict risk for eight consecutive years, with the highest impact on American interests.

January 4:
The Criminal Investigation Corps of the Tainan City Police Department cracked down on a large environmental crime organization spanning Tainan and Kaohsiung, which has been dumping construction mixed waste everywhere, destroying at least 300 hectares of land, the largest scale in history. The crime group often used fish farms and photovoltaic field bases to bury construction mixed waste. Most of these photovoltaic fields were approved without environmental assessments. Tainan and Kaohsiung have long been governed by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), raising criticism over whether the regulatory failure was intentional or due to negligence.

 

January 5:
The Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) released statistics showing that in 2024, the cumulative net inflow of foreign capital was US$37.1 billion, a new high since statistics were recorded in 2011. However, the net sell amount of Taiwan stocks was also $682.5 billion, the second largest figure in history. The FSC stated that a net inflow was observed for the entire year, indicating that foreign capital remains in the Taiwan stock market, interested and awaiting return opportunities.


January 6:
The Council on Foreign Relations released its annual conflict risk assessment report, listing the Taiwan Strait crisis as a first-level risk for the eighth consecutive year. The likelihood of occurrence is not the highest but moderate, while the impact on American interests is highest.

Global risk consulting firm Eurasia also released its annual "Top Risks for 2025" report, indicating that geopolitical turmoil around the world is no less dangerous than in the 1930s and early Cold War. Although United States policy towards Taiwan will not become an immediate crisis trigger, the situation in Taiwan may exacerbate the rift in U.S.-China relations.

January 8:
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) whip Legislator Ker Chien-ming threatened to recall the speaker and deputy speaker of the Legislative Yuan affiliated with the Kuomintang (KMT) as well as 41 constituent-elected KMT legislators. The KMT questioned the DPP's two-handed strategy and stated that it does not rule out recalling DPP legislators in Taipei and New Taipei as a countermeasure.

 

President Lai Ching-te, who concurrently serves as DPP chairman, stated after the party's Central Standing Committee meeting that he understands the feelings of the DPP caucus as a minority party, but other constitutional procedures remain for which to strive. He respects actions initiated independently by civic groups. President Lai's move is viewed by some as a call to halt the so-called "large-scale recall" campaign.

 

January 9:
Legislator Huang Kuo-chang of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) exposed that Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) heavyweight Wu Nai-ren participated in a banquet with five prosecutors from the Taiwan Supreme Prosecutors Office and Taipei District Prosecutors Office at the end of last year. Because Wu sold land owned by the Taiwan Sugar Corporation (Taisugar) at a low price when he was chairman, he still owes the national treasury more than NT$100 million. The news caused a public outcry. As a result, the Taiwan High Prosecutors Office and Taipei District Prosecutors Office launched an administrative investigation. Taisugar stated that it has reapplied for an investigation into the property status of Wu and related persons in accordance with the Compulsory Enforcement Act to facilitate the recovery of losses.

 

January 9:
The Ministry of Finance released 2024 import and export statistics, with exports totaling US$475 billion and imports totaling US$394.4 billion. Exports to the United States and Southeast Asia reached new heights, with exports to the United States at US$111.3 billion and a trade surplus of US$64.8 billion and exports to Southeast Asia at US$87.7 billion and a trade surplus of US$38.5 billion, both hitting new records. In contrast, exports to mainland China and Hong Kong have shrunk for three consecutive years for the first time. Trade surplus with mainland China and Hong Kong was US$69.9 billion, and the gap with the trade surplus with the United States has narrowed to the smallest in 32 years.

 

January 10:
Yan Anlin and Sheng Jiuyuan, prominent Shanghai scholars on Taiwan Affairs, visited Taiwan and interacted with clearly pro-DPP think tanks. Deputy Chairman Liang Wen-chieh of the Mainland Affairs Council confirmed that appropriate arrangements were made for interaction to understand specific existing issues in cross-strait relations. Liang emphasized that exchanges and interactions are positive. Whether this constitutes a track-two or track-1.5 dialogue between the Chinese Communist Party and DPP is being closely watched

 

January 11:
The TPP held a demonstration on Judicial Day to protest the injustice faced by former Chairman Ko Wen-je under the Lai administration and DPP’s “green authoritarianism.” The parade attracted 150,000 participants. Founding DPP heavyweights like Hsu Kuo-tai and Lin Cheng-chieh also attended the event to show their support, criticizing the incumbent DPP administration for undermining democracy and freedom.

Published since 2019 by the Fair Winds Foundation and Association of Foreign Relations, Taiwan Weekly provides in-depth report and analysis of the major issues facing Taiwan.

The conclusions and recommendations of any Taiwan Weekly article are solely those of its author(s) and do not reflect the views of the institutions that publish the newsletter.

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