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U.S. Bid to Seize Greenland Will Have
Butterfly Effect on Taiwan Strait |
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If the United States were to annex Greenland, it could reshape the global order and affect Taiwan’s fate. |
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China Will Seize Opportunity to Consolidate Dominance in East Asia
President Donald Trump of the United States has declared that the incorporation of Greenland into the country is “irreversible.” Therefore, this issue is no longer a low-probability, idle topic, but will be a “black swan” event forcing a dramatic historical turn.
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The administration of President Lai Ching-te has given away semiconductors, thinning the “silicon shield” and attracting European and American arms manufacturers to rush into Taiwan. |
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Arms Dealers Flocking to Taiwan: A Curse, Not Blessing
President Lai Ching-te delivered Taiwan’s semiconductor supply chain, allowing President Donald Trump of the United States to celebrate his inauguration anniversary in global prominence. With celebration at a somber occasion, the president proudly declared a new chapter for Taiwan’s economy, saying with a smile and a sniff, “As soon as you catch a faint scent on the wind, you know spring has arrived.” Ironically, after the Silicon Shield was thinned, Western and European arms dealers truly caught the scent and came running.
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A drone intrusion into Pratas Island reflects Communist China’s escalated “lawfare” against Taiwan. |
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PLA Drones Intrude Pratas Airspace: Lawfare Escalating Against Taiwan
In the early hours of January 17, a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) reconnaissance drone entered Taiwan’s southwestern airspace. At first glance, this appeared to be yet another routine and familiar occurrence. However, the situation changed at 5:41 AM, when Republic of China military surveillance systems detected that the drone had begun approaching Pratas Island, and at 5:44 AM it entered the airspace over Pratas Island. Although the R.O.C. Armed Forces immediately notified the garrison personnel on Pratas Island, because the drone consistently maintained an altitude above the effective firing ceiling of the island’s ground-based air defense firepower, our side could only use international radio frequencies to broadcast warnings to PLA aircraft and vessels around Pratas Island that might be related to this operation, until the drone departed at 5:48 AM.
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Director Raymond Greene of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) confirmed that three major U.S. defense contractors have already set up supply chain operations in Taiwan, with Washington viewing Taiwan as a key partner in advancing defense technology. |
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January 16:
Taiwan and the United States reached a tariff agreement. The United States stated its goal under President Donald Trump is to relocate 40 percent of Taiwan’s semiconductor production to the country. Minister of Economic Affairs Kung Ming-hsin responded that based on advanced processes below 5nm, the projected production capacity between Taiwan and the United States will be 85 percent to 15 percent by 2030, and 80 percent to 20 percent by 2036. However, media reports suggest the industry estimates the U.S. share will reach at least 30 percent by then. |
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January 17:
The Ministry of National Defense (MND) announced that a mainland Chinese drone entered the airspace over Pratas Island for the first time. Due to its altitude being beyond the range of stationed air defense weapons, it was only repelled via radio broadcast. As the MND did not specify the drone’s exact altitude, scholars question whether the military had accurate control of the situation. The Taiwan Affairs Office of the mainland’s State Council claimed that the drone was conducting routine flight training in the airspace over “China’s Dongsha Island,” calling it legitimate and lawful. |
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January 19:
The MND unveiled a NT$400 billion (about US$12.7 billion) special budget for seven major arms procurement projects. In addition to five U.S. arms sales already disclosed, several new domestic and commercial procurement items were revealed. Most notably, over 200,000 drones are planned—four times the originally proposed 50,000. |
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January 19:
Cti TV anchor Lin Chen-yu was accused of using his media position to bribe active and retired military personnel to gather and pass on classified military information to individuals in mainland China, violating the National Security Act and committing corruption. Lin and five others have been detained. |
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January 21:
Opposition parties proposed impeaching President Lai Ching-te. The Legislative Yuan held a plenary committee review and invited President Lai, the subject of impeachment, to explain. However, the Office of the President stated that the Legislative Yuan has no direct authority to hold the president accountable and refused to attend. The opposition criticized President Lai for evading constitutional procedures regarding presidential impeachment, shirking responsibility, and betraying the people. |
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January 21:
The 2026 central government budget remains stalled in the Legislative Yuan. Opposition parties jointly extracted several emerging budget items for early review, reigniting partisan conflict. Premier Cho Jung-tai called for a “public debate,” but after opposition parties agreed, the Executive Yuan backtracked, saying that the legislative chamber is the best platform. |
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January 21:
PwC Taiwan released its 2026 Global and Taiwan Business Leaders Survey. Under Trump’s tariff policies, 39 percent of Taiwanese business leaders plan to invest in the United States, a 12-point increase from last year, mainly in semiconductor and electronics industries. |
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January 22:
The United States and Taiwan are advancing cooperation in the defense industry. Director Raymond Greene of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) confirmed that three major U.S. defense contractors Anduril, Northrop Grumman, and Shield AI are expanding their supply chains in Taiwan. He stated that the United States views Taiwan as a key partner in advancing frontier defense technologies. |
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